Regime: Neutral / Sideways. SPX above 50DMA by 2.6% (Δ −34.4 pts w/w); VIX 15.0 (+0.5 w/w); HY OAS tightening; SOX below 20DMA and falling—leadership pause despite broader index strength.
Stance: Overweight US quality/semis on dips with modest HY carry; underweight UK cyclicals; neutral duration; per playbook run long SOX vs FTSE Tech, long USD vs GBP, and hold UST call spreads/SPX put spreads.
Flip risks: SPX closes below 50DMA or VIX > 20; additionally, a sustained SOX downside break would force de-risking of AI beta and reduce carry.
Catalysts: Jackson Hole symposium Aug 21–23 (policy tone, term premium); NVIDIA earnings Aug 27 (AI leadership sentiment), then US PCE Aug 29 as inflation check.